On the candidates

First the good news:

When the 562 likely voters were asked for their choice from a Bush v. Kerry race, 53 percent of those picked Kerry, and 46 percent favored Bush.

That difference is greater than the MOE (4%). Edwards beat Bush too, but was within the MOE. Clark was close. Via Tom Tommorow.

Now I know it’s only one poll and I should definitely take it with a grain of salt but it is part of a clear trend.

Like most Democrats and liberals, I am strictly ABB. I will vote anyone over Bush, and my chief criteria for the nominees is that they can beat Bush easily. I think any of them can beat Bush, but it is good to finally see some positive numbers. Particularly for the frontrunner.

The fact is that I like all the major candidates. The only ones I wasn’t thrilled about were Gephardt, who was finished in Iowa and Lieberman, who has now dropped out.

I always liked Kerry. He was my senator, my cousin worked for him and her ex-husband was his chief council. I had my misgivings about him though. I thought he would be the next Dukakis, smart and competent, but boring and uninspiring. I hope I am wrong. The new numbers look like I might be.

My friend H_____, who is much more conservative than I, particularly on foreign policy, really likes Kerry. His second choice is Bush, but I am glad we can agree on a candidate though. He says Kerry is an inspiring leader. I hope more folks who would otherwise vote for Bush think like him. The polls show that some of them might.

As a former trail lawyer, Edwards gives great speeches and presentations. He is young seeming (although I found out he is 50; he doesn’t look a day over 40). He can pick up a lot of rural and moderate support. His only problem is that he is a formal trial lawyer, easily demonized by the Republicans. He was almost my first choice after the Dean implosion, since I thought he might be a bit more exciting than Kerry, although Kerry has surprised me.

I even like Clark. He was once my second choice, but the more I see him the less I tend to like him. His military background will obviously help him against the Republicans, but Kerry has military experience too. And Clark has not political experience. I don’t want to wait for him to learn in such an important election.

I was a fairly strong Dean supporter, even giving to him twice, but it looks like Dean is out of the race. He still has the most money, but that counts for little. Also the polls aren’t good for him vs. Bush, the most important thing for me. I think it would be too easy for Bush to use the scream.

I thought Dean was the best against Bush not so much because of his ability to get enthusiastic supporters and dollars from the internet (although that didn’t hurt), but because he was actually quite centrist. He had proven himself as a deficit hawk in Vermont, keeping a strictly balanced budget even when he didn’t have to (and I think the budget is the most important issue). He was fairly lenient about guns, helping him in a lot of swing states, and he had a good health care record.

Still I am glad about what Dean brought to the race. He was the first to uncompromisingly criticize Bush, long before it was considered “acceptable.” He brought many issue to the front. He changed the way campaigns collect money and interact with their supporters via the internet. He kept the primaries interesting and constantly in the news, showing a constantly heard Democratic criticism of Bush. I don’t for a minute regret the money I gave his campaign.

I would proudly pull the lever for any of these four candidates over Bush, and would be thrilled to have any as president.

If Kerry wins, which looks like a definite possibility, I would win, my friend H_____ would win an the country would win.